Do You Think Nigerians Can Survive This Economic Recession ?
From Atedo Peterside: I attended an economic outlook session with top economists and top CEOs today and thought to share some of the perspectives. The session looked at Nigeria’s economic direction for 2017.
The summary: 2017 will be tougher than 2016. The economy will not recover until 2018, even 2019. Inflation will continue to be high (hovering around 20%)and Naira to dollar will remain in the 450s. With money scarce many more businesses will fold up, leading to job losses and more poverty.
With inflation and high exchange rate the banks will not be able to give loans and when they do the interest rate will be too high to afford. With high inflation those with paid salaries are now actually earning less, that is if they will be lucky to keep their jobs.
The presentation shows that all sectors of the economy (not just oil) are either falling or already in recession (below zero). Signs are all over: British Airways just converted it’s Nigerian office into an agency; almost all foreign airlines now fuel in Ghana; many people now smuggle crops and raw materials out to earn dollars.
75% of vacant houses in Ikoyi and VI don’t have buyers; Shoprite that opened in Ajah in August is still 70% empty as dollars to bring in goods is scarce and customer count is poor; 5 other big supermarkets in Lagos have closed shop etc.
*The experts’ advice*
1. Cash is going to be King and whoever has it or has access to it should preserve it.
2. Spend less than you earn; SAVE for the rainy day.
3. Cut down on avoidable merriment.
4. Expect the worst Christmas in 20 years.
5. Look for dollar or pounds-earning businesses if you can.
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Yes, in many ways Nigeria can successfully survive current economic recession. But most feasible amongst them is through youths empowerment for sustainable commercial agribusiness. Here is a concept for development:
Promoting sustainable commercial agriculture in the country requires innovative financing strategy that simultaneously supports youths-driven inputs business; farm production and direct produce marketing. This approach is achievable through program instrument tagged National Youths Sustainable Agribusiness Investment (NAYSAIN) to be implemented in all states of the federation. The program has significant promises in just two years for sustainable youth-driven agribusiness. Graduate youths will be engaged for agribusiness company management, farm inputs transaction, farm production and produce marketing all over the country.
Under the program, selected youths will initiate individual financial commitment which is to be matched with federal government empowerment grant (60%) while state government gives non-interest loan (40%) to the youth-farmer. The total amount shall be used as collateral to access equal amount as credit from a partner bank. The central bank of Nigeria (CBN) provides credit guarantee under the NIRSAL facility to cover the bank loan. Both the collateral and bank credit put together make up BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAY to be used for inputs business, farm production and direct produce marketing. Minimum participating youths in the state should not be less than 200,000 aggregated into 10-member production clusters (20,000 clusters per state) for crop, livestock and or aqua productions. A professional business structure such as profit-oriented agribusiness company will be floated in the state to manage, supervise and control the Youth-Farmer Agribusiness activities ensuring effective delivery of the services to core individual members of the production clusters. Selected partner bank shall be responsible for mobilizing and custody of the fund from participating youths, from federal and state governments as well as disbursement of the bank credit to the registered youths’ agribusiness company that operates at the state level.
The starting point of the NAYSAIN program is participating youth-farmer contributes an annual fee for production and produce marketing; federal government provides empowerment grant and state government provides non-interest loan to the youth-farmer. The total amount from the three sources is now the COLLATERAL to be used to attract equal amount as bank agricultural loan that is to be covered by the CBN/NIRSAL facility. The collateral plus bank credit collectively forms BUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAY for agribusiness development by Youths-registered Agribusiness Company in the state.
The program strategy is ‘Build Your Share Capital’ for sustainable agribusiness development. This is how it works:
a) The youth-farmer makes contributions in first and second year only.
b) Federal government adds empowerment grant only once (first year)
c) State government provides non-interest loan only once (first year) The total amount is COLLATERAL
d) Partner bank gives AGRICULTURAL CREDIT that is equal amount to the Collateral. The total amount is AGRIBUSINESS CAPITAL OUTLAY
At the end of first year business, government and bank loans would be completely paid back and the youth-farmer company will be left with big amount of share capital that belongs to the youths who made first payments, so they automatically become the only shareholders of their company. This company should concentrate in AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS – regional and intercontinental markets with the aim to boost Naira strength against the dollar
|Participating Youths-Farmers in the state||200,000||Clustered into 10-member groups|
|Individual Youth-Farmer contribution||5,000||N1,000,000,000|
|Federal government empowerment grant to the Youth-farmer||3,000
(60% of youth’s)
|State Govt. non-interest loan to the Youth-farmer||2,000
(40% of youth’s)
|Bank agricultural loan to the Youth-farmer based on the collateral.
(Bank loan equals Collateral amount)
|Second contribution by Youth-farmer||5,000||N1,000,000,000|
|Federal government empowerment grant to the Youth-farmer||Nil|
|State Govt. non-interest loan to the Youth-farmer||Nil|
|Business Revenue from first year operation at 35% (minimum) return on investment||N1,400,000,000|
|First Year Business Capital (BF)||N4,000,000,000
|State Government non-interest loan||N400,000,000|
|Bank Agricultural loan||N2,000,000,000|
|Bank loan interest at 9%||N180,000,000|
|Running costs of business for one year (30% of business capital) exaggerated||N1,200,000,000|
Carried forward (CF)
This is credit-free Business Capital at the beginning of second year.
It represents 65.5% of first year Total Business Capital
The Youths-farmer Agribusiness Company shall operate to penetrate deeply into the nation’s agricultural activities creating business and knowledge opportunities in new agriculture concept and exporting for upcoming youths in the country. We are in the process of developing this concept nationwide, stakeholders are welcome please. Thank you.
Rabiu Auwalu Yakasai